Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered stable topline and materially stronger profitability: revenue $94.7M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.05, adjusted diluted EPS $0.09, gross margin 31.4% (vs. 25.9% LY), and adjusted EBITDA $13.0M (vs. $6.0M LY), supported by higher-margin USM/leasing and lower period expenses .
Mix normalized ex-whole assets: flight equipment sales were $31.0M (six engines), but ex-whole assets Q4 revenue grew 35.5% y/y; Asset Management ex-whole assets +91.7% y/y; TechOps +3.1% to $30.7M, aided by AerSafe and new Millington heavy MRO contributions .
Balance sheet/liquidity improved: YE liquidity $142.8M (cash $4.7M; revolver availability $138.1M); $30.9M insurance proceeds related to the Roswell fire received and recorded as a liability pending claim adjustment .
2025 setup: management expects growth in both revenue and earnings; $10.4M annual efficiency savings targeted; Miami pneumatics/aerostructures openings delayed to Q2’25 with up to $50M annualized revenue at full capacity; AerSafe backlog $14M approaching the Nov-2026 FAA deadline .
Potential stock catalysts: lease-pool scale-up (17 engines and one 757 leased exiting 2024), accelerating AerSafe installations into the 2026 mandate, resolution of the insurance claim, and any AerAware order flow following feature enhancements/demos .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Mix/margin improvement: gross margin expanded to 31.4% on higher-margin USM and leasing; adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $13.0M y/y while SG&A was lower y/y (SBC down) .
- Base business growth: ex-whole-asset revenue rose 35.5% y/y in Q4; Asset Management ex-whole assets +91.7% y/y; TechOps +3.1% y/y to $30.7M, benefiting from AerSafe and new capacity .
- Management tone/strategy: “We concluded the year on a positive note... growth primarily driven by a 92% rise in asset management revenue... higher leasing, USM, and MRO revenue all contributing” (CEO) .
What Went Wrong
- Whole-asset headwind: Q4 flight equipment sales fell y/y ($31.0M vs. $47.4M LY) with six engines vs. five engines and one aircraft LY, keeping quarterly revenue volatile .
- Near-term MRO cadence: reduced volume expected at Goodyear in H1’25 after a contract completion; Millington ramp paced conservatively, delaying full overhead absorption .
- Project delays: pneumatics and Miami Aerostructures openings slipped to Q2’25 (from prior expectations), pushing out incremental revenue .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$94.4	$82.7	$94.7
Gross Margin %	25.9%	28.6%	31.4%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.08)	$0.01	$0.05
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.02)	$0.04	$0.09
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$6.0	$8.2	$13.0

Segment revenue

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Asset Management	$41.8	$50.4	$64.0
TechOps	$35.3	$32.3	$30.7

KPIs and operational metrics

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Flight equipment sales ($USD Millions)	$17.9	$22.6	$31.0
Flight equipment units	5 engines, 0 aircraft	5 engines, 0 aircraft	6 engines
Feedstock acquisitions ($USD Millions)	$36.0	$42.0	$18.4
AerSafe backlog ($USD Millions)	—	—	$14.0
Lease pool on-lease (count)	—	—	17 engines; 1 B757
Liquidity ($USD Millions)	$101.8	$103.5	$142.8
Cash ($USD Millions)	$4.3	$9.8	$4.7
Revolver availability ($USD Millions)	$97.5	$93.7	$138.1

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q4 2024): SBC $1.2M; inventory write-down $1.1M; facility relocation $0.4M; restructuring $0.2M; insurance gain $(1.0)M; adjusted net income $4.8M and adjusted diluted EPS $0.09 .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Topline and bottom-line direction	FY 2025	None provided	Expect growth in both revenue and earnings vs. 2024	New (directional)
Efficiency savings (run-rate)	FY 2025	~$10M saved in 2024 through efficiency	Additional ~$10.4M annual savings expected in 2025	Raised cost actions
Facility expansions (Miami pneumatics/aerostructures)	Start-up timing	Previously expected earlier	Opening delayed to Q2 2025	Delayed
Facility expansions (annualized revenue potential at full capacity)	Run-rate	Not previously quantified	Up to ~$50M annualized revenue potential	New
Goodyear heavy MRO volume cadence	H1 2025	Not previously quantified	Lower in H1’25; rebuilding through 2025	New
AerSafe revenue cadence	2025–2026	Positive commentary	Backlog $14M; expect increasing quarterly revenue approaching Nov-2026 mandate	Maintained positive trajectory
Opening remarks on Q1 base	Q1 2025	N/A	“Start from a lower base in Q1’25 vs. Q4, then step up incrementally”	New color

Note: No formal numerical 2025 revenue/EPS guidance was issued; commentary was directional .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Feedstock availability and win rate	Continued investment in feedstock; constrained supply; $36M acquired in Q2; $42M in Q3 with $45M under contract; supportive backdrop	Market remains tight, but Q4 win rate 17.2% on disciplined IRR targets (25% unlevered)	Improving execution despite tight supply
Lease pool expansion	+4 engines on lease y/y in Q3; no aircraft on lease	Exited 2024 with 17 engines and one 757 aircraft on lease; recurring revenue to grow	Expanding
MRO capacity and cadence	Millington heavy MRO launched in May; Miami expansions planned by YE’24; strong MRO demand	Miami pneumatics/aerostructures delayed to Q2’25; potential $50M at full capacity; lower Goodyear volumes in H1’25; efficiency focus	Positive capacity expansion, near-term cadence dip
AerSafe (FAA mandate 2026)	Higher sales as operators begin upgrades (Q2)	Backlog $14M; expect rising quarterly revenue into deadline	Accelerating ahead of mandate
AerAware (EFVS) commercialization	STC secured Dec-2023; active marketing	Added features (foldable HWD, runway length, tail-strike, ADS‑B In); 2 demos; no orders yet	Product enhanced; orders pending
Insurance proceeds (Roswell fire)	—	$30.9M received; recorded as liability pending final adjustment	Resolution pending

Management Commentary

Strategic positioning: “We concluded the year positively… excluding whole asset sales, our fourth quarter sales increased by 35.5%… driven by a 92% rise in asset management revenue… higher leasing, USM, and MRO revenue all contributing” (CEO) .
2025 priorities: “Expand our lease pool… monetize remaining 757 freighters… add MRO revenue from expansions… strong AerSafe performance… efficiency program expected to save $10.4M annually (in addition to $10M saved in 2024)” (CEO) .
Capacity timing: “Construction delays at pneumatics and Miami Aerostructures… pushed opening to Q2 2025… potential to achieve $50M in additional annualized revenue at full capacity” (CEO) .
Financial setup: “Ended the quarter with $4.7M cash and $41M total debt; $11.2M free cash flow in 2024 including $30.9M insurance proceeds… recorded as a liability until claim is fully adjusted” (CEO) .
Outlook tone: “Start from a lower base in Q1’25 relative to Q4 and step up incrementally… expect to grow top and bottom lines in 2025” (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

AerAware feature set and readiness: Enhancements include foldable head-wearable display, runway-length indicator, tail-strike indication, and ADS‑B In visualization on the display; partners are ready to ramp as orders come; ADS‑B In in flight test on a King Air platform (Elbit/Universal) .
AerSafe cadence: Backlog $14M; management expects backlog to peak late 2025 as airlines schedule installs around maintenance to meet the Nov-2026 compliance deadline .
MRO cadence and profitability: Temporary dip at Goodyear in Q1’25 vs. Q4; rightsizing and focus on long-term contracts; expect profitability to improve from Q2 and strengthen in H2’25; Millington ramp will be cautious and cost‑conscious .
Feedstock market: Still tight due to OEM/FAA constraints, but AerSale wins complex assets where it can “squeeze the sponge” via integrated capabilities; disciplined 25% unlevered IRR; deals often won without being the highest bidder due to certainty of close .

Estimates Context

S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus for Q4 2024 and FY 2024 was unavailable at the time of this analysis due to a daily request limit, so we cannot provide beat/miss vs. consensus for revenue/EPS/EBITDA (S&P Global data unavailable).
Investors should note actuals: Q4 revenue $94.7M, GAAP EPS $0.05, adjusted EPS $0.09, adjusted EBITDA $13.0M, driven by higher-margin mix and lower period costs .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mix normalization is working: USM/leasing and AerSafe supported a 560 bps gross margin expansion y/y in Q4 and adjusted EBITDA improved to $13.0M; revenue ex-whole assets rose 35.5% y/y .
Near-term cadence watch: Management flagged a lower base in Q1’25 (vs. Q4) with sequential improvement thereafter as expansions come online and cost actions flow through; monitor Goodyear/ Millington ramp .
Structural earnings levers: $10.4M annual efficiency savings targeted for 2025 on top of ~$10M saved in 2024; Miami expansions could add up to ~$50M annualized revenue at full utilization .
Regulatory-driven demand: AerSafe backlog at $14M should build ahead of the Nov-2026 FAA deadline; watch for order cadence and installation schedules as aircraft enter maintenance .
Recurring revenue base: Lease pool ended 2024 with 17 engines and one 757 on lease; further expansion should support steadier margins and cash conversion .
Optionality: AerAware features and demos broaden the value proposition; initial orders would be a meaningful sentiment catalyst given safety focus, though timing remains uncertain .
Balance sheet support: YE liquidity $142.8M with ample revolver headroom; resolution of the Roswell insurance claim could simplify the capital structure and narrative .

Citations

Q4’24 8‑K/press release and financials:
Q4’24 earnings call:
Q3’24 8‑K/press release and financials:
Q2’24 8‑K/press release and financials:

AerSale Corp (ASLE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary